http://www.scottkuma.net/2008-ncaa-auto-pick-page It's just like my brain - only cleaner. Fri, 21 Nov 2008 16:36:13 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 http://www.scottkuma.net/2008-ncaa-auto-pick-page#comment-5 bevo Thu, 20 Mar 2008 02:06:54 +0000 http://www.scottkuma.net/this-years-ncaa-auto-picker/#comment-5 Great idea for a site, and much appreciated. But you can get some better probabilities for outcomes as a function of seed difference from an academic article by Hal Stern and Barbara Mock in Chance Magazine, Vol. 11:1, pp26-31. The main difference is that they find they you need a different set of probabilities when a #1 seed is involved. Yours match theirs pretty well when a 1 is NOT involved, but significantly deflate the favorite's chances when the favorite is a 1. Happy to send you the article if you e-mail me. Keep up the good work! Great idea for a site, and much appreciated. But you can get some better probabilities for outcomes as a function of seed difference from an academic article by Hal Stern and Barbara Mock in Chance Magazine, Vol. 11:1, pp26-31. The main difference is that they find they you need a different set of probabilities when a #1 seed is involved. Yours match theirs pretty well when a 1 is NOT involved, but significantly deflate the favorite’s chances when the favorite is a 1. Happy to send you the article if you e-mail me. Keep up the good work!

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